Tag Archives: Stock market Sri Lanka

SEYLAN BANK SHARES TO RETURN NEARLY 48% BY 2018: FC RESEARCH

AS INTEREST RATES RISE, THE LISTED BANK’S EARNINGS COULD GROW FIVE TIMES FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS COMPARED TO 2016 BY ADJUSTING LENDING INTEREST RATES FASTER THAN DEPOSITS
August 21, 2017

Listed Seylan Bank’s voting and non-voting shares will return up to 48% by the end of 2018 as rising interest rates accelerate the bank’s annual profit growth rate by more than five times over the next two years, according to forecasts by FC Research, a unit of First Capital Equities, a stockbroker firm.

Seylan’s voting shares will gain 34% in the 18 months to end-2018, and deliver a dividend yield of 9% for a total return of 44% (27% annualised). Non-voting shares will gain 34%, but with a higher dividend yield of 14%, with the forecast return at 48% (30% annualised), FC Research predicts.

Typical of most banks, “Seylan Bank is benefitting from rising interest rates by re-pricing its loans at a faster rate than deposits,” FC Research says. Net interest income (NII), the difference between interest income earned from borrowers and interest paid to depositors—which is the equivalent of the gross revenue of a business—increased 12% in 2016 to Rs13 billion. FC Research forecasts NII will grow 16.5% annually over the next two years to Rs20.5 billion in 2018. Profits, which grew at 4% to Rs4 billion in 2016, will improve 22% each year over the next two years to Rs6 billion.

Return on average equity will increase to 16.6% in 2018 from 14.6% two years ago.

However, when deposit interest rates are eventually adjusted, margins will begin to tighten. Seylan Bank’s net interest margin, which will peak at 5.53% in 2017, will decline to 5.19% the following year. Bad loan provisioning—which is not a write-off, but a prudential measure—will also eat into profits, as borrowers struggle to service their loans as interest rates rise. In 2016, Seylan Bank made statutory provisioning for bad loans amounting to Rs954 million. Over the following two years, the bank is forecast to provide Rs2.9 billion in bad loan provisions.

The bank’s loan book growth will slow from 22% to 15%. However, FC Research believes Seylan Bank’s ability to lend to construction companies and large firms will drive lending growth and profitability beyond 2018.

Stock Brokers In Sri Lanka

The comments on this report are provided by the Capital Markets Research Unit of First Capital Holdings PLC an investment bank in Sri Lanka.

The company operates in the capital markets of Sri Lanka in government securities – treasury bills and bonds, stock brokering and share market investments, asset management, private wealth management,  retirement planning, personal financial planning, unit trust, margin trading, capital market research, trustee services, corporate finance advisory services including corporate debt structuring (debentures, trust certificates, commercial papers), valuations, restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings (IPOs) and project advisory. 

The First Capital Group consists of First Capital Treasuries PLC, First Capital Limited, First Capital Markets Limited, First Capital Asset Management Limited and First Capital Equities (Private) Limited covering Colombo, Negombo, Matara, Kandy and Kurunegala.<

Central Bank expected to keep key rates unchanged: First Capital

Author LBO
Posted on | Economy, Featured, Forex, Policy

June 21, 2017 (LBO) – The Central Bank of Sri Lanka is expected to keep key interest rates unchanged in its monthly monetary policy announcement on Friday, with slower first quarter growth and a deceleration in inflation contributing to the decision, First Capital Research said in a pre-policy research note.

GDP growth for the first quarter was slower than expected, growing 3.8 percent year-on-year, with the agriculture sector decreasing 3.2 percent year-on-year due to drought.

“We believe inflation will be under control over the next 2-3 months while there could be some upward pressure towards September and beyond with the floods in May 2017 affecting the supply in the current growing season. As a result there could be possible supply side shortages towards September and beyond.”

CCPI based headline inflation, decelerated on a YOY basis to 6.0% in May 2017 from 6.9% in April 2017, and CCPI based core inflation also decelerated to 5.2% in May 2017 from 6.8% in April 2017.

Sri Lanka’s forex reserves rose to USD 6.8Bn in May 2017 from USD 5.0Bn in April, helped by a 1.5 billion dollar sovereign bond sale, 450 million dollar syndicated loan and dollar purchases by the central bank.

“Foreign Reserves are now at comfortable levels,” the note said.

Commenting on private sector credit growth, FC Research expects that the growth in private credit to descend towards around 18% to 20% from the current level of over 20%.

“In spite of a high private sector credit figure in March 2017 we believe the usual credit slowness in the month of April will keep overall credit under check.”

During the last one-and half months the central bank also bought down its holding in Government Securities from LKR 300Bn to below LKR200Bn as at 19th June 2017.

First Capital Research said there was a 85 percent probability rates would remain unchanged, and a 15 percent probability of a 25 basis point rate hike.

The Press Release on Monetary Policy Review is expected on Friday, 23 June at 7.30 am.

 

POLL: Sri Lanka cbank seen keeping rates steady as growth slows

    * Thirteen out of 14 analysts predict steady rates
    * Full-year growth expected to slow on adverse weather
    * Tight fiscal, monetary policies also weigh on growth
    * Policy announcement due on Friday, June 23 at 0200 GMT

    COLOMBO, June 21 Sri Lanka's central bank is
expected to keep its key interest rates steady at more than
three-year highs at a policy meeting on Friday, a Reuters poll
showed, to boost faltering growth hit by adverse weather.
    Thirteen out of 14 economists surveyed predicted the central
bank would keep its standing deposit facility rate (SDFR) and
standing lending facility rate (SLFR) unchanged at 7.25 percent
and 8.75 percent, respectively.
    The lone outlier expected a 25-basis-point hike in both
rates.
    All 14 economists predicted the statutory reserve ratio
(SRR) to stay at 7.50 percent.
    "With the slower-than-expected first-quarter growth, the
central bank would keep the rates steady," said Dimantha Mathew,
head of research, First Capital Holdings PLC.
    "With improvement in the reserves, inflation under control,
and slowing private sector credit growth, they (the central
bank) might see the current conditions to be appropriate to hold
the rates steady."
    The $81 billion economy grew 3.8 percent in the quarter
ended March 2017 from a year earlier, slowing from the 5.3
percent growth in the previous quarter and marking its weakest
period since the second quarter last year.             
    The full-year growth is expected to be hit by extreme
weather, after the island nation faced its worst drought in 40
years in the first quarter and heavy rains resulting in floods
last month, the country's worst in 14 years.
    Sri Lanka's 2017 growth rate is likely to be significantly
lower than the official forecast, private economists have said.
            
    The central bank tightened monetary policy four times since
December 2015 through March this year to fend off pressure on
the fragile rupee and curb stubbornly high credit growth that
had pushed up inflation.
    Analysts said previous policy tightening cooled inflation
and private sector credit growth in the last two months. 
    Private sector credit grew 20.4 percent in March from a year
earlier, up from February's 21 percent. It has eased from a near
four-year high of 28.5 percent hit in July.
    Consumer prices rose 6.0 percent in May from a year earlier,
slowing from the previous month's 6.9 percent.               
    Policy tightening also dragged on the economy, which grew at
a slower 4.4 percent annual pace in 2016 compared with the 4.8
percent growth a year earlier. 
    The Sri Lankan rupee          fell 3.9 percent in 2016 and
has eased around 2.3 percent so far this year, pressured by
dollar demand from importers and withdrawal of foreign investors
from government securities in the first three months.
    The central bank has quit defending the rupee after it
missed an end-December reserve target set by the International
Monetary Fund for a $1.5 billion loan. 
    
Following are poll forecasts for rates on Friday: 
                    SDFR         SLFR        SRR
                  (in pct)    (in pct)     (in pct)    
Median              7.25         8.75       7.50
Average             7.27         8.77       7.50  
Minimum             7.25         8.75       7.50
Maximum             7.50         9.00       7.50   
Rates in May        7.25         8.75       7.50
No. of economists     14           14         14

 (Reporting by Ranga Sirilal and Shihar Aneez; Editing by Amrutha Gayathri)

OBG outlines reforms for growth

Published on Daily FT on  Tuesday, 20 June 2017

– By Charumini de Silva

 InvestmentInSriLanka
From left: Oxford Business Group Country Director Andrea Tsiachtsiri, Oxford Business Group Editor-in-Chief Oliver Cornock, BOI Chairman Upul Jayasuriya, Ceylon Chamber of Commerce Chairman Samantha Ranatunga, First Capital CEO Dilshan Wirasekara and Standard Chartered Commercial Banking Head Dushan Casie Chetty with the report – Pic by Ruwan Walpola

Sri Lanka needs to concentrate on a much-needed modernisation drive and structural reforms to improve growth, experts said yesterday, as the country attempts to break out of its low-middle income status.

Sri Lanka’s plans to boost economic growth, which places tourism development high on the agenda, towards a new era of optimism buoyed by strong growth, low unemployment and rising incomes were mapped out in a report by the Oxford Business Group.

Titled ‘The Report: Sri Lanka 2017’, it also highlighted Sri Lanka’s plans to capitalise on high levels of investor confidence and a $ 1.5 billion program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to implement a much-needed modernisation drive and structural reforms.

Speaking at the launch event, OBG Editor-in-Chief Oliver Cornock said the report this year has outlined that the reforms needed to help Sri Lanka reach its long-term goal of securing sustainable and inclusive economic growth were taking shape.

“The post-war years have brought impressive economic expansion and investor interest; pockets of poverty and inequalities remain an issue,” he added.

He said the finding suggests that Sri Lanka’s new administration is already moving to align its economic policy and address these weaknesses, while embarking on an infrastructural overhaul that will sit well with investors eyeing the country’s many opportunities.

Considering the global economic outlook, Cornock pointed out that growth in emerging markets is still very strong, adding that Sri Lanka is well located among huge growing engines like India and China.

OBG Managing Editor for Asia Paulius Kuncinas in a statement agreed that there was a tangible sense of optimism in Sri Lanka, with new trade deals in the pipeline and a shift in the economic landscape towards service-led industries.

“Sometimes overlooked, Sri Lanka has a fascinating story to tell, which most recently includes 15 years of continuous growth,” he said.

“With ambitious plans that include transforming the country into an international transport hub and driving new growth in the greater Colombo region, the Government’s bid to take Sri Lanka’s development to the next level looks to be well on track,” Kuncinas pointed out.

OBG analyses the part that improved transport infrastructure, including upgrades to ports and roads together with Customs reforms, will play in supporting Sri Lanka to strengthen trade and international relations, while building on its strategic location in the Indian Ocean.

It also explores the Government’s plans for developing the tourism sector further, while highlighting the activity already underway, which includes a raft of new hotel openings.

In addition, OBG looks in detail at the country’s fast-developing telecommunication and IT industry, which is being driven forward by rising demand for a wider range of services from a growing and increasingly tech savvy population. Other areas of Sri Lanka’s economy examined agricultural industry, which is earmarked for modernisation as a part of a national drive to boost both production and exports.

In addition to the launch event of the report, there was a discussion where experts shared their insights on the building blocks expected to drive growth across key sectors of the economy.

First Capital CEO Dilshan Wirasekara called for policy consistency as it had deterred the confidence and momentum of the economy with many investors waiting to see changes come into the system.

“No matter what policy, we need consistency. The latest example was the Budget 2017 which brought in a significant number of tax changes to the capital market which was implemented. This creates a ‘wait-and-see’ phase for foreign investors,” he added.

He said if the proposed Inland Revenue Act and Foreign Exchange Management Act would be put into place, it would help the building blocks which are critical to take Sri Lanka to the next level.

In addition, he said the implementation of the Central Counter Party (CCP) system at the Colombo Stock Exchange by the end of the year as well as digitalising the processes of financial services would bolster the investment climate in the country.

However, he said it was unfortunate that Sri Lanka was too dependent on banks and financial institutions, which “rip-off people.”

“It is important to acknowledge the importance of the capital market. The banks and financial institutes are ripping off the consumers. What we need is a financial disintermediation, which would allow investors to access the capital market directly for cheaper funding,” Wirasekara stressed.

Agreeing with Wirasekara, BOI Chairman Upul Jayasuriya also highlighted the need for regulations that allow investors to tap into private equity, which will also make their businesses more viable.

“We need to encourage private equity to come into the country,” he added.

He said that there are a number of factories that close down every month in the zones as the companies are unable to pay their bank loans.

“While attracting new investments to the country, it is also our duty to retain existing investors in the 12 zones we have at present. There are a number of companies closing down their factories every month as they are unable to repay bank loans.”

Noting that 15 new licensed zones will be launched under the BOI, Jayasuriya asserted that the Government has outlined special allowances in the Northern and Eastern provinces.

MARKET UPDATE ON ADA DERANA ENGLISH NEWS – 2017.06.18

InvestmentInSriLanka

First Capital’s Atchuthan Srirangan with the market update – between 22.32 mins to 22.56 mins

The comments on this report are provided by the Capital Markets Research Unit of First Capital Holdings PLC an investment bank in Sri Lanka.

The company operates in the capital markets of Sri Lanka in government securities – treasury bills and bonds, stock brokering and share market investments, asset management, private wealth management,  retirement planning, personal financial planning, unit trust, margin trading, capital market research, trustee services, corporate finance advisory services including corporate debt structuring (debentures, trust certificates, commercial papers), valuations, restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings (IPOs) and project advisory. 

The First Capital Group consists of First Capital Treasuries PLC, First Capital Limited, First Capital Markets Limited, First Capital Asset Management Limited and First Capital Equities (Private) Limited covering Colombo, Negombo, Matara, Kandy and Kurunegala.

MARKET UPDATE ON ADA DERANA ENGLISH NEWS – 2017.06.11

InvestmentInSriLanka

First Capital’s Head of Research Dimantha Mathew with the market update – between 18.50 mins to 19.20 mins

The comments on this report are provided by the Capital Markets Research Unit of First Capital Holdings PLC an investment bank in Sri Lanka.

The company operates in the capital markets of Sri Lanka in government securities – treasury bills and bonds, stock brokering and share market investments, asset management, private wealth management,  retirement planning, personal financial planning, unit trust, margin trading, capital market research, trustee services, corporate finance advisory services including corporate debt structuring (debentures, trust certificates, commercial papers), valuations, restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings (IPOs) and project advisory. 

The First Capital Group consists of First Capital Treasuries PLC, First Capital Limited, First Capital Markets Limited, First Capital Asset Management Limited and First Capital Equities (Private) Limited covering Colombo, Negombo, Matara, Kandy and Kurunegala.

MARKET UPDATE ON ADA DERANA ENGLISH NEWS – 2017.06.04

InvestmentInSriLanka

First Capital’s Head of Research Dimantha Mathew with the market update – between 18.22 mins to 18.56 mins

The comments on this report are provided by the Capital Markets Research Unit of First Capital Holdings PLC an investment bank in Sri Lanka.

The company operates in the capital markets of Sri Lanka in government securities – treasury bills and bonds, stock brokering and share market investments, asset management, private wealth management,  retirement planning, personal financial planning, unit trust, margin trading, capital market research, trustee services, corporate finance advisory services including corporate debt structuring (debentures, trust certificates, commercial papers), valuations, restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings (IPOs) and project advisory. 

The First Capital Group consists of First Capital Treasuries PLC, First Capital Limited, First Capital Markets Limited, First Capital Asset Management Limited and First Capital Equities (Private) Limited covering Colombo, Negombo, Matara, Kandy and Kurunegala.

Finance & Leasing Companies Show Sharp Growth in Assets in FY16

Sunday, May 07, 2017

The licensed finance companies (LFCs) and specialised leasing companies (SLCs) sector showed a sharp 26.4 per cent growth in its total assets to Rs. 853 billion at FY16 with improved assets quality reflected in the NPL ration. Analysts said that its growth of assets was largely contributed by the increase in borrowing by 29 per cent YoY and deposits by 17 per cent YoY.

Funds mobilised were largely utilised in granting loans and advances. Throughout FY16 this sector experienced a strong demand for credit on vehicle leasing and other secured loans.

“There was a steady growth in deposits as the sector continued to attract depositors due to relatively high deposit rates offered by LFCs compared to banks. Total deposits grew by 17.22 per cent to Rs. 490 billion in FY16. The deposit mobilisations mainly through fixed deposits accounting for 95 per cent of the total deposits whilst a slight increase was shown in the savings deposit base. The capital elements of the sector increased by 8.44 per cent to Rs. 131.5 billion at end FY16, mainly on account of internally generated profits made during the year,” Atchuthan Srirangan, Senior Research Analyst First Capital Equities told the Business Times.

LFCs and SLCs sector total assets expanded by 7.51 per cent to Rs. 1,158 billion in the first six months of FY17. The increased appetite for credit at the grass-root level of the economy enabled the finance sector to grow their business volumes and increase profitability, analysts say. Increase in assets was largely funded through borrowings, Mr. Srirangan said, adding that 42 per cent of the assets increase during the period was funded through borrowings. The sector borrowings increased by 10.94 to Rs. 416.5 billion in the 6MFY17. In contrast, the deposits grew by 4.8 billion to Rs. 512.7 billion in 6MFY17.

Analysts say that private sector credit growth is to slow down against 2015 and 2016 but remain moderate at 12 per cent-14 per cent while finance sector credit which has always grown at a faster rate and therefore is likely to remain at 16 per cent -18 per cent compared to 27 per cent growth in 2016.Given the monetary tightening measures and the currency depreciation vehicle leasing segment is likely to register a slowdown while loans and advances segment record the bulk of the growth. IMF forecast for private sector credit growth stands at 14 per cent – 15 per cent levels between 2017E-2020E.

MARKET UPDATE ON ADA DERANA ENGLISH NEWS – 2017.04.27

First Capital’s Atchuthan Srirangan with the market update – between 14.33 mins to 15.20 mins

The comments on this report are provided by the Capital Markets Research Unit of First Capital Holdings PLC an investment bank in Sri Lanka.

The company operates in the capital markets of Sri Lanka in government securities – treasury bills and bonds, stock brokering and share market investments, asset management, private wealth management,  retirement planning, personal financial planning, unit trust, margin trading, capital market research, trustee services, corporate finance advisory services including corporate debt structuring (debentures, trust certificates, commercial papers), valuations, restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings (IPOs) and project advisory. 

The First Capital Group consists of First Capital Treasuries PLC, First Capital Limited, First Capital Markets Limited, First Capital Asset Management Limited and First Capital Equities (Private) Limited covering Colombo, Negombo, Matara, Kandy and Kurunegala.

Sri Lanka Finance Sector Report (Mar 2017) on ADA DERANA ENGLISH NEWS – 2017.04.17

Share Market Investment in Sri Lanka

First Capital Head of Research Dimantha Mathew with the Sri Lanka Finance Sector Report (March 2017) – between 20.54 mins to 22.14 mins

The comments on this report are provided by the Capital Markets Research Unit of First Capital Holdings PLC an investment bank in Sri Lanka.

The company operates in the capital markets of Sri Lanka in government securities – treasury bills and bonds, stock brokering and share market investments, asset management, private wealth management,  retirement planning, personal financial planning, unit trust, margin trading, capital market research, trustee services, corporate finance advisory services including corporate debt structuring (debentures, trust certificates, commercial papers), valuations, restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings (IPOs) and project advisory. 

The First Capital Group consists of First Capital Treasuries PLC, First Capital Limited, First Capital Markets Limited, First Capital Asset Management Limited and First Capital Equities (Private) Limited covering Colombo, Negombo, Matara, Kandy and Kurunegala.