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1-Yr T-bill rallies on its downward spiral

CEYLON TODAY | 24.06.2019

Treasury Bills and Bonds in Sri Lanka

By First Capital Research
Weekly Yield movement & Volume

The secondary market yield curve remained relatively unchanged, however, closing the week with a slight downward shift on the back of buying interest that stemmed mainly from local counterparties. On the back of continued buying interest, the short end of the curve dipped by 5-10bps, while the belly-end of the curve dipped by 10-20bps and the long end of the curve fell by 11-12bps.
At the primary bill auction, the three-month and six-month were accepted at a weighted average of 8.38 per cent and 8.60 per cent respectively, while the one-year was accepted at a weighted average of 8.86 per cent. The total offered amount of Rs 19.0 billion was fully subscribed with a bid-to-offer ratio of 3.22:1, recording a four-week high. In the forex market, the rupee appreciated marginally to close at
Rs 176.68 on 19 June, relative to
Rs 176.71 at the beginning of the week.

 
Liquidity and CBSL
Holdings

Market liquidity remained positive throughout the week to close at Rs 24.3 billion, while CBSL continued to drain out liquidity by way of term repo auctions during the week. CBSL holdings marginally declined to Rs 129.1 billion, relative to Rs 130.1 billion held at the beginning of the week.

 
Foreign Holdings
Foreign holdings in Government securities increased by Rs 311.0 million to record Rs 143.0 billion, while foreign holding percentage for the week was maintained at 2.6 per cent.

 
Maturities for next Week
The Government Security Market has a Treasury Bill maturity amounting to Rs 16.5 billion that needs to be settled during the week ending 28 June 2019.

 
Daily Summary
Friday (14.06.19): The secondary market yield curve remained mostly unchanged while overall market witnessed thin volumes. Limited activity was seen on selected maturities, with short end of the curve [01.05.20], [15.10.21] and [15.12.21] trading at 8.80 per cent, 9.80 per cent and 9.82 per cent-9.79 per cent levels respectively, while mid tenure maturities, [01.10.22], [15.03.23] and [15.03.24] traded at 10.00 per cent, 10.20 per cent and 10.33 per cent. In addition, on the long end of the curve, [01.08.26] traded at 10.50 per cent, [15.01.27] at 10.58-10.55 per cent levels, [15.06.27] at 10.64 per cent and [01.05.29] at 10.68 per cent.

 
Monday (17.06.19): The secondary market witnessed moderate volumes with limited activity, resulting in the overall yield curve remaining unchanged. Buying was mainly centred on short-tenor [15.10.21] and [15.12.21], resulting in yields dipping to day’s lows of 9.75 per cent and 9.76 per cent respectively. Furthermore, [01.10.22] traded at 10.00 per cent, while [15.06.27] changed hands in the range of 10.65-10.63 per cent. In the long end of the curve, [01.05.29] traded at 10.68 per cent.

 
Tuesday (18.06.19): The secondary market yield curve remained relatively unchanged with greater number of market participants remaining on the sideline ahead of the primary T-bill auction. Buying interest with limited activity was seen primarily centred on the following maturities, short-tenor [01.05.20], [15.10.21] and [15.12.21] traded at day’s low of 8.75 per cent, 9.74 per cent and 9.75 per cent respectively. Mid- to long-tenor maturities traded at their intraday lows with [15.03.22] trading at 9.92 per cent, [15.03.23] at 10.14 per cent, [15.03.24] at 10.26 per cent; in addition, [15.01.27] traded at 10.57 per cent, while overall market witnessed thin volumes.

 
Wednesday (19.06.19): The secondary market witnessed moderate activity levels and volumes, while the yield curve witnessed a slight downward shift with continued buying interest.

 

On the shorter end of the curve, [01.05.21] and [15.10.21] maturities saw yields dipping to day’s lows of 9.50 per cent and 9.63 per cent, while [15.03.22] traded at 9.90 per cent. Mid-tenor [15.03.23] and [15.03.24] traded at 10.02 per cent and 10.17 per cent. Furthermore, [15.01.27] traded at intra-day low of 10.49 per cent. Meanwhile, at the primary bill auction, the six-month and one-year bill declined to 8.60 per cent and 8.86 per cent respectively, while the three-month bill remained steady.